Edition two: Thank you for reading!
Thank you to everyone who replied to our first edition. The question we hear most has changed: in October, everyone asked when Hormuz would reopen. Now it is how to plan shipments for December and early 2027 around routes that may stay exactly as they are.
In this edition:
- After 3 November: why the US elections will not change your shipping plans overnight.
- The UAE east coast: more capacity is coming, and what it means for your cargo.
- Headline vs reality: ships are returning to the Red Sea. What that means for Gulf cargo.
Hormuz: October was the worst month yet
The US elections on 3 November are a political milestone, not a shipping one. Plan December and the first quarter of 2027 as if nothing changes.
The strait remains effectively closed to container shipping. IMF PortWatch recorded four transits on 18 October, against a pre-crisis average of around 85 a day. On 25 October, around 490 vessels were waiting outside the strait, close to 200 of them at the Fujairah and Khor Fakkan anchorages. Brent crude closed October at around USD 118 a barrel, a six-month high.
October has been the most intense month for attacks on shipping since the conflict began in February. Analysts at the Washington Institute counted 28 attacks in and around the strait, and Reuters found that 11 supertankers were hit in October alone. On 22 October an LPG tanker was struck off Limah, on Oman’s Musandam coast, outside the strait; the following day a tanker was disabled inside it, and on 29 October another tanker was set on fire near Khasab, also off Musandam, and Oman evacuated its crew. The Joint Maritime Information Centre keeps the strait at its highest threat level and expects further attacks.
Talks are under way in Doha through Qatar, and Iran says the strait could reopen within two days if the US accepts its conditions. At the same time, a new round of strikes after the elections remains possible. Either way, container lines will not be back in November. A restart depends on insurers covering ships again, and we expect several weeks between any political breakthrough and regular container services. Our advice: plan December and early 2027 on today’s routes.
If your cargo does transit the strait: some carriers charge an additional USD 1,000 per container for any vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz, on top of other emergency charges. If this applies to your shipment, we will show it on your quote upfront.
Same map. New pressure points.
Eight months into the Gulf disruption, the map has not changed: the ports are working, the routes are not. What has changed is where the pressure sits. In this edition: new capacity on the UAE east coast, rising risk in the Gulf of Oman and on Saudi Arabia’s Gulf coast, a Q4 surge at Jeddah, and what the return of ships to the Red Sea does, and does not, mean for Gulf cargo.
The short version: plan December and the first quarter of 2027 on today’s routings. If Hormuz reopens, there will be weeks of notice before container services return, not days.
Figures as of 1 November 2026; carrier positions as of 29 October 2026.
Gateway status board
Where each gateway stands today. Carrier rules change weekly: we confirm the best option for each shipment.
| Gateway | Status | What to know |
|---|---|---|
| Jebel Ali (direct by sea) | No direct calls | Undamaged and ready: DP World says it can return to full capacity within 48 hours of normal shipping resuming. Until then, cargo arrives by truck or feeder from the east coast. |
| Khor Fakkan / Fujairah (UAE east coast) | Limited: severe congestion | The main UAE entry point, with waits of three to four weeks. Khor Fakkan is expanding to 5 million TEU and a new Asia service calls from mid-November, but tankers were hit off Oman’s Musandam coast on 22 and 29 October. We check east-coast routing daily. |
| Jeddah (Saudi Red Sea) | Limited | Busy Q4 import season on top of existing congestion. Vessel waits of five to ten days and release times of six to eight days reported. We prepare customs paperwork early to keep cargo moving. |
| King Abdullah Port (Saudi Red Sea) | Open | The practical alternative to Jeddah. Some carriers accept dry cargo here and let customers reroute from Jeddah without changing contract terms. |
| Dammam / Jubail (Saudi Gulf coast) | No direct calls | Reached overland from Jeddah or King Abdullah Port. The Houthis claimed a missile strike on the Ras Tanura refinery on 27 October: the Gulf coast is not risk-free. |
| Sohar / Salalah / Duqm (Oman) | Open | Open and growing: container volumes are up 20% this year. Onward trucking is restricted by some carriers, and the October attacks off Musandam show the Gulf of Oman is exposed, so we check the route before each booking. |
UAE: the east coast is scaling up
More capacity is coming. So is more risk.
Jebel Ali remains undamaged and ready, but mainline ships are still not calling. DP World says the port can return to full capacity within 48 hours of normal shipping resuming. Until then, cargo for Dubai and the rest of the UAE lands at Khor Fakkan and Fujairah and is trucked across.
Capacity on the east coast is growing fast. Khor Fakkan is expanding to 5 million TEU (standard 20-foot container units) a year, and a new Asia service starts calling there in mid-November. For now, though, the queues are long: expect waits of three to four weeks. The risk is also moving closer: tankers were hit off Oman’s Musandam coast on 22 and 29 October.
Our read: the UAE has made it official policy to end its reliance on Hormuz, so the east coast is here to stay. For December, book early: the new capacity will help in 2027, not in Q4.
Saudi Arabia: Q4 surge on the Red Sea, risk on the Gulf
Jeddah is busier than ever. King Abdullah Port remains the relief valve.
Saudi Red Sea ports are bracing for their seasonal import surge on top of the cargo already diverted from the Gulf. Vessel waits of five to ten days are still reported at Jeddah, release times of six to eight days are common, and shipping executives warn of growing congestion on the highways that carry the land bridge to Riyadh and Dammam.
Cargo for the UAE and other Gulf countries can again move through Jeddah with some carriers, but only with complete paperwork and customs clearance within 15 days of arrival. Delays beyond that add storage and relocation costs.
Risk is also rising on the Gulf coast. The Houthis claimed a missile strike on the Ras Tanura refinery on 27 October, and Saudi Arabia contained a fire near the terminal. King Abdullah Port, about 120 km north of Jeddah, remains the practical alternative for the land bridge.
Our read: Saudi Arabia works, but it is decided on paperwork. When your documents are complete before departure, we clear customs in advance through FASAH, the Saudi online customs platform, and your cargo leaves the port days sooner.
Oman: growing, and more exposed
The volumes are there. So is the risk.
Oman’s ports handled more than 4 million TEU in the first eight months of 2026, up 20.5% on last year, and total cargo rose from 90 to 146 million tonnes. Sohar, Salalah and Duqm are now a core part of the Gulf routing map, but yard space and onward trucking remain the bottlenecks.
Onward trucking is the weak point. Some carriers have paused landside bookings from Oman’s ports to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar, and only local trucks are allowed inside the Sohar terminal.
The attacks off Musandam, Oman’s northern tip, on 22 and 29 October are a reminder that the Gulf of Oman is not outside the conflict. Around 55 vessels were waiting at the Musandam and Sohar anchorages on 25 October.
Our read: Oman works best for cargo that stays in Oman or moves on by feeder, and we check the Sohar route before every booking. For the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the east coast and the Saudi Red Sea ports are usually the more predictable options.
Red Sea: ships are returning, risk is shifting
Good news for Asia–Europe. Not a fix for the Gulf.
More carriers are bringing Asia–Europe services back through Suez: container traffic through the canal rose 40% in September to its highest level since the crisis began, and Asia–Europe spot rates are falling. The risk has not gone away, though. A container ship was fired on off Yemen on 7 October, and fighting between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has intensified, with missiles intercepted over Riyadh on 27 October. Services can switch back to the Cape at short notice, so build in buffer.
Air freight: belly space is slowly returning
Passenger airlines are cautiously coming back to the Gulf, and with them space for air cargo. Lufthansa Group restarted Dubai flights from Munich, Frankfurt and Zurich at the end of October, with more planned for November and December. For urgent or high-value shipments, air is a realistic option again: ask us for a sea-versus-air comparison.
Costs: what’s on the invoice
Surcharges now matter as much as the base rate.
| Charge | Typical level | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| War risk and emergency conflict surcharges | USD 1,500/TEU; USD 3,500 reefer/special | Gulf routes: UAE, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Dammam, Jubail |
| Jeddah congestion surcharge | USD 500/TEU | All cargo types to Jeddah |
| Emergency cost recovery | USD 500 per container | Contract bookings to the UAE; reviewed every two weeks |
| Inland trucking (east coast / land bridge) | Up to 4–5x a direct call | Add queue time to transit estimates |
Levels are indicative and change frequently. We confirm every charge with you at booking and show it line by line on your quote. No surprises on the invoice.
Beyond the Gulf: Panama Canal
A second squeeze on global capacity, on the other side of the world.
No change since our last edition. The Panama Canal is holding 33 daily transits and a maximum draft of 49 feet for the largest ships. The water deficit has not gone away, though, and the dry season starts in December: a transit booking remains the only guarantee of a slot.
For cargo between Asia, the US East Coast and Latin America, this adds delay and cost at the same time as the Cape diversions. Through our trusted partner network, we plan around both, wherever your cargo is going.
What this means for you
- Tell us early. The earlier we know about a shipment, the more route and carrier options we can offer.
- Expect longer transit times. Allow one to two extra weeks on many routes, plus waiting time at the destination port. December and the run-up to Chinese New Year will add more.
- Send complete documents. Complete paperwork is what keeps cargo moving once it arrives, especially in Saudi Arabia.
- Let us choose the route. Gateways, carriers, surcharges and customs are ours to manage. We keep you updated at every step.
- Every charge upfront. Your quote shows each surcharge separately, with a validity date.
What we’re watching in December
- What the US does after the 3 November elections: talks through Qatar or a new round of strikes, and whether insurers start covering ships through Hormuz again.
- Attacks outside the strait, in the Gulf of Oman, and their effect on Khor Fakkan, Fujairah and Sohar.
- The new Asia service at Khor Fakkan from 16 November, the terminal’s expansion to 5 million TEU, and truck queues on the east coast.
- Jeddah’s Q4 surge and highway congestion on the land bridge, and the start of the dry season in Panama.
Planning shipments into the UAE, Saudi Arabia or Oman for December or early 2027? Talk to us before you book. We are on the ground in Dubai, Jeddah and Riyadh and happy to work through the routing with you.
Year-end: book early
December is busy everywhere. Carriers and airlines fill up ahead of Christmas and the New Year, many origin countries slow down over the holidays, and in the UAE the National Day holiday in early December shortens the working week.
If you want your cargo moving before the end of the year, let us know in the first half of November. We will secure space, plan the route and keep you updated at every step.
Trust us to find the best balance of cost, speed and reliability for every shipment you move with us.
Thank you for your continued support of AKM.
Santos Govinda and the AKM Team
This update is for information only and reflects our view at the date of writing, based on carrier advisories, port data and industry reporting. Sources are available on request. It is not a rate offer.